Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes Guide 2021

US raider Golden Pal is expected to set a blistering pace in the Nunthorpe Stakes for trainer Wesley Ward and heads the market in a 15 strong field.

The Uncle Mo colt left a good impression on his last venture on British soil last season in the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot on lesser suited good to soft ground when just pipped on the line by The Lir Jet.

Since that run, he has gone 3 wins from 3, including when making all in the Grade 2 Juvenile Turf Sprint on his final run as a 2yo.

The now 3yo seemingly returned better than ever when landing a Grade 3 affair by an eased down 3 lengths on his seasonal return at Sarataga and it's performances like this that leave the impression that this speed ball will be tough to catch on his second try at British Group success.

Having said this, any form of rain softened ground, despite having the ability to act on the surface, would leave a few question marks over Golden Pal's winning credentials.

Clear leading claims in this.

The highly progressive French horse, Suesa, is a multiple Listed and Group 3 winner in France and was seriously impressive last time out at Goodwood when running on to a 3 length victory in the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes (5f).

That run set the story straight after a below standard run prior to that race in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup (6f) on heavy at Ascot, finishing 8th despite going off as favourite for the contest.

Last times run has clearly signified a better liking to 5f and warrants a 2nd attempt at British Group 1 glory for the runner, particularly as the King George gives her leading form claims entering the Nunthorpe.

Despite all this, Suesa has a liking to rain softened ground and is untried over good/faster conditions, thereby leaving question marks over her suitability to the forecasted conditions on day 3 of the Ebor.

Should the rain come however, she looks primed to deliver once more with William Buick in the saddle.

Much like the progeny of Bungle Inthejungle before her, Winter Power poses a solid proposition in the race and is expected to give her running in this given how well the York track appears to play to her strengths.

Progeny of Bungle Inthejungle outperform their expected wins at York by a seriously impressive 2.5x with a 25% strike rate at the Knavesmire whilst also boasting as overachievers across the majority of their runs on straight galloping tracks across the UK & Ireland.

Winter Power has continued to buck this trend with 2 recent Listed C&D victories here, making all from the front on both occasions.

Tim Easterby's runner has been a prolific winner at that level of late with last times win taking her listed total up to four.

Having said this, she was less impressive on her last attempt in Group 1 company on her penultimate start, finishing 9th at Ascot and although she's expected to give a better account of herself at a better suited track, she ultimately looks to have a lot to find for the step back up in class.

Dragon Symbol has been highly progressive this season and boasts strong form lines, however has been painfully unlucky since making the step up to the top level.

Archie Watson's colt is extremely versatile ground wise and has now recorded 4 straight runner-up finishes, including a nose 2nd in the Group 2 Sandy Lane stakes (6f), a reversed placing in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup (6f) before continuing to run well in the top sprints in the July Cup (6f) and the King George Qatar Stakes (5f).

Last times run was a drop back to 5f for the runner, the same distance he takes on today, and whilst performing admirably, the 3 lengths needed to make up with Suesa at the trip looks tough should the ground be on the softer side of good once more.

Having said this, the re-employment of usual jock Oisin Murphy in the saddle is a big plus and he will be sure to benefit from a blistering pace likely to be encountered in this race.

There's no one more deserving of landing a contest of this calibre and he'll be sure to give his running once more; should be there or thereabouts.

Arecibo was a shock 28/1 runner up at the royal meeting in July in the Kings Stand (5f), going easily 2f out and running on extremely well, however was ultimately left with too much to do on the run in to the line.

That race marked a major step up from handicaps to Group 1 level for the runner and subsequent runner-up and 4th placed finishes at Sandown and Goodwood in Group 3 and Group 2 races are equally respectable pieces of form given they came over seemingly lesser suited softer ground.

The return to better ground should see him in the mix of things once more and he's another runner sure to benefit from a strong pace set from the off.

Trainer Robert Cowell's record of just 3 wins in 70 runs at York across the last 5 seasons is a stat Arecibo backers will need to overlook here however.

Moss Gill for trainer Edward Bethell appears to enjoy it here at York given hes never ran a bad race at the track with form figures of 221132 at the Knavesmire.

Progeny of No Nay Never are known to be well suited by a flat galloping straight course, boasting an 18% strike rate and 40% place rate across tracks of this nature.

Moss Gill was actually 3rd in this race last year, however has since done the majority of his running back down at listed level, including when finishing a 1 length 2nd to re-opposing rival, Winter Power, last time out.

That form may be difficult to reverse upon similar conditions once more and the step back up to Group 1 level looks a big leap for the 5yo who is unlikely to be showing much more improvement than what we have already witnessed.

Outside each way claims at best.

Liberty Beach has ran some big races, albeit without achieving too many success' at the top level, and it would be no surprise to see her pop up with another big run.

John Quinn's filly was a game Group 2 winner on her seasonal re-appearance upon heavy ground, however was unable to follow up on the step back up to Group 1 at Ascot, finishing a fairly respectable 6th placed finisher just 2.75 lengths off the eventual winner and a length behind re-opposing rival Arecibo.

A 10th placed finish last time out in the King George Qatar Stakes was a well below form run that she will now need to bounce back from here with almost 12 lengths to make up on winner, Suesa.

Not completely discounted for an each way place but will need to pull something big out the bag and at the current prices you seemingly couldn't give her away with her majorly drifting in the market.

Whilst respectable, trainer Michael Dods' 10% all time strike rate at York is hardly prolific, however he is operating at a +£47.75 profit to a £1 level stake across all his runners at the Knavesmire with almost £1.5million in race earnings.

This highlights the trainers capabilities of landing a lesser fancied big priced outsider at the track thereby meaning it should be no shock should Que Amoro pull out a big run.

The daughter of Es Que Love was 2nd in this race last year and rarely runs a bad race at York with form figures of 211320.

Having said this, since her 1 length loss to the mighty Battaash with down the field finished in her following 3 runs.

The drop back down to handicap company last time out failed to spark a revival, finishing a well beaten 3.25 length 3rd at Hamilton in class 3 company and she now has it all to find back up in a Group 1.

Andrew Balding is in great form of late, operating at a 22% strike rate across the last 14 days, also boasting a whopping 38% strike rate at York this season.

His runner, Chil Chil has been boosted by the employment of Ryan Moore in the saddle and has shown a progressive profile this season to improve with each run and step up from a class 2 handicap win to land Group 3 spoils on the all-weather at Newcastle in June.

Having said this, its arguable we have now seen where the ceiling lies for the runner having stepped up once more into Group 1 company last time out to make no impression when finishing 9th back at a well suited Newmarket track he had won at on multiple occasions in lower grade affairs.

Balding clearly feels we didn't see the best of him that day and that this company is worth another shot.

However he again has it all to find in order to be competitive at this level, remaining unproven.

Rohaan was a fairly consistent runner in handicap company however was a shock to most when stepping up to land the Group 3 Commonwealth Cup trial (6f) at Ascot in April at 22/1 on good to firm.

David Evans runner is extremely versatile groundwise given he then stepped up again to land the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes (6f) next time out as another shock 33/1 shot upon bottomless ground ahead of re-opposing rival Dragon Symbol.

Connections then opted to drop back into handicap company for the Wokingham (6f) by which Rohaan won again, completing his hat-trick off a big weight for the contest.

Frustratingly however, Rohaan has been well below standard the last twice up in Group 1 company at Newmarket (6f) and in France (6f) and we now see the runner dropped down to 5f to spark a revival.

It's unclear whether the drop to the minimum distance would spark any sort of comeback from the runner and David Evans 5% strike rate at the track makes a win appear difficult.

Cannot be underestimated if the new trip brings him back to form, despite needing to produce a careers best, which of course remains a feasible possibility as a 3yo.

It's not like he hasn't shocked us before...

At 7 years-old, Dakota Gold is hardly an improving type, however Michael Dods believes this race be well worth a first crack at Group 1 glory for the runner given his impressive record at York.

Form figures of 120111215 are impressive at the course, the most recent win being a Group 3 success last season which kick started a hat-trick of wins down at listed level.

The son of Equiano clearly needed the run when 5th here on his seasonal re-appearance on the back of a layoff and subsequently improved to finish 2nd in listed company at Chester.

The runner is equally as proficient at 5f as he is at 6f and on his 3rd run back he should be primed to produce as close to his current best as is possible.

The key question mark remains however over if his current best is anywhere close enough to Group 1 level which sadly most would expect it not to be.

Kevin Ryan is in great form of late with a 27% strike rate across the last 14 days and is represented in the race by entrant, Emaraaty Ana.

The 5yo son of Shamardal won a Group 2 at York as a 2yo however has failed to land the spoils at Listed or Group level since that run despite a handful of respected placed efforts.

The drop down in grade and trip last time out to a 5f race in class 3 handicap company at Hamilton had its desired effect on the runner in sparking a revival, resulting in a fine 2.25 length win upon fast ground.

However having said this, he looks against it back up in grade and his current levels of form fall well short of what is to be expected of a potential Nunthorpe winner.

Kevin Ryan will also need to see improvement on his current 0-35 record at York this season.

Eve Johnson Houghton is represented by the only 2yo in the race, Chipotle, who has a big swing at the weights for the affair for taking on the older horses.

The son of Havana Gold was very impressive at Ascot when landing the 27 runner listed Windsor Castle stakes (5f) on fast ground by a dominant 2.25 lengths.

The runner was luckless at Newbury next time out when repeatedly short of room at a crucial stage of the race before having excuses again last time out at Goodwood on unsuited soft ground.

He'll be sure to appreciate the return to better ground and is clearly an individual with a huge future in the sport however he has it all find against the bigger, more experienced horses in his first Group 1.

Bedford Flyer ran a solid front running race here at the Knavesmire earlier in the season to land class 3 handicap spoils over C&D in May.

The son of Clodovil was subsequently below par on heavy ground at Ascot before finishing a head 2nd at the track when improving for the switch to faster ground, both races being class 2 handicaps.

Whilst the runner is a 3yo that appears to be on the upgrade, his current levels of form fall short of whats to be expected of a Group 1 winner at this stage and he has a huge amount to find to be involved.

Nigel Tinkler's Ubettabelieveit was a massive shock 40/1 winner on his final run last season as a 2yo in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster (5f) on good ground.

The son of Kodiac subsequently followed up at Keeneland to finish 3rd in the Grade 2 Breeders Cup juvenile turf sprint (5.5f) Stateside.

Having said this, his form this season has been well below par and he looks a mere shadow of his 2yo self.

Down the field, last and 2nd to last finishes at Chantilly, Ascot and Goodwood so far this season, behind a number of these rivals, leaves him with a mountain to climb here.