Cheltenham - Ultima Handicap Chase Stats & Trends 2025

The first handicap of the Cheltenham Festival in 2025 is the third race on the opening day. The Ultima Handicap chase sees the attention switch to the three-mile chasers. Notable horses including Corach Rambler and Rough Quest have won the handicap en route to landing the Grand National.

The race is contested over three miles and one furlong, and horses aged five and older are eligible to run. Last year’s winner of the Premier Handicap chase was Chianti Classico for trainer Kim Bailey. You can find the trends to consider when assessing the field in 2025, below:

Assessing the age is vitally important when narrowing down the Ultima Handicap field. Ten of the last 12 winners of the race were aged between seven and nine, meaning an improving type tends to come out on top in the stamina-sapping race.

The only exception to this rule in ten editions was the eleven-year-old Vintage Clouds for trainer Sue Smith in 2021. Chianti Classico was the first seven-year-old winner since Un Temps Pour Tout in 2016.

The market traditionally is a good guide when it comes to betting on the Ultima Handicap Chase. Despite the fact that just two of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint-favourites, the winner has been found within the top three of the market in seven of the last 12 renewals.

However, it has been a solid recent period for favourites, with both Corach Rambler and Chianti Classico either being outright or co-favourite in the last two runnings.

Previous Cheltenham experience is a must when assessing Ultima Handicap Chase contenders. All of the last 12 winners have had at least one previous start at the course, while eight winners over the same period have made two or more appearances at Cheltenham before winning the handicap at the Festival.

This trend goes against current market-leader Masaccio, as the Alan King-trained runner is yet to line up at the home of jumps racing

Recent form is worth considering when lining up a bet for the Ultima. Ten of the last 12 winners have made at least three starts that season, while nine of the 12 winners have recorded at least one win.

Winning experience over fences also counts for a lot, with all but one of the last 12 winners having already got their nose in front over fences before landing success at the Festival.

Official ratings appear to be a good indicator when it comes to assessing the Ultima field. Ten of the winners since 2013 have been rated 140 or higher, which includes each of the last two. The lowest-rated winner since 2014 was The Conditional for David Bridgwater in 2020, who was rated 139.

Classier types have been winning the race in recent years, with Chianti Classico winning off 143 in 2024 and Corach Rambler landing the win of 146 in 2023.

Iroko looks like an interesting angle for the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerreiro yard at this stage. The seven-year-old is already being pointed toward the Grand National, and the Ultima has a fine record of producing winners of the Aintree showpiece.

Iroko, rated 152, has previous Cheltenham experience after chasing home Grey Dawning after a 128-day layoff in the G1 Turners Novices’ Chase last year. The seven-year-old also stays here miles well after finishing second behind Inothewayurthinkin in the G1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase in April.