The first handicap on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival in 2025 is the County Handicap Hurdle. The race is run on the New Course, and a total distance of two miles and one furlong will be covered by the field.
Last year, the race was won by globe-trotting Absurde for trainer Willie Mullins. You can find the key stats and trends to consider when assessing the County Handicap Hurdle field for 2025 below.
The County Handicap Hurdle has been a good race for an emerging horse to come out of the pack since 2013, with nine of the last 12 winners being aged either five of six.
That trend continued last year when Absurde won aged six. The oldest winner since 2020 was Faivoir for Dan Skelton, aged eight.
The market has typically proven to be incorrect when making selections on the County Handicap Hurdle. That is reflected by the stat that there have only been two winning favourites of the race since 2013.
The most recent favourite to oblige was State Man in 2022 when sent off at a SP of 11/4. However, the long-term stats show that nine victors since 2013 have been priced at 10/1 or bigger. That includes 33/1 winners in the forms of Faivoir in 2023 and Belfast Banter in 2021.
Horses with a recent run behind them have fared well over the last 12 renewals, with nine winners having lined up within 80 days of the County Handicap Hurdle.
However, it may be wise to assess contenders that haven’t won during that period, with just three of the last 12 winners of the County Hurdle winning on their final start before heading to Cheltenham.
Experience around Cheltenham is also preferred when assessing the most likely County Handicap Hurdle winner.
Seven of the victors since 2013 have made at least one previous start at the course, but only two of the last 12 winners have recorded a previous win at Cheltenham. That could be a positive trend for horses such as Anzadam and Kitzbuhel, who are prominent in the market.
The official rating of County Handicap Hurdle contender is essential reading. All but one of the winners of the race since 2013 have been rated between 134 and 141.
The highest rated winner of the race over this period was Arctic Fire off 158 for Willie Mullins in 2017. Meanwhile, the lowest rated winner since 2013 was Belfast Banter off 129 for trainer Peter Fahey in 2021.
Willie Mullins has done well in this race with returning horses following a layoff, and Ethical Diamond ticks plenty of boxes for the Irish maestro in 2025. The five-year-old made a first start in 189 days when a tailed off 15th at Leopardstown in December, but will strip fitter following that effort.
He has some respectable form to his name on British soil, including a fourth of 19 on the flat at Ascot in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.
Has previous Cheltenham experience after running in the G1 Triumph Hurdle last season, and was also a decent sixth behind Kargese in the G1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
