The big handicap on the third day at the Cheltenham Festival in 2025 is the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase, which will be run over two miles and four furlongs on the New Course.
Shakem Up’Arry gave Ben Pauling a memorable win in the race last year, and the odds of previous winners indicate that it could be a race to take a price. You can find the stats and trends to consider for the race in 2025 here.
While nine of the last 12 winners of the race has been aged between seven and ten, it is worth noting that each of the last three winners have been between ten and eleven.
Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a seven-year-old winner of the race since Simply The Betts in 2020. Shakem Up’Arry was the second straight winner to be aged ten to win the race. That could be a potentially damning trend for six-year-old Jagwar in 2025.
It’s hard to ignore the poor record of favourites in the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase. Only three of the last 12 winners were favourites, while only a further winner over this period was found in the top three in the betting.
In each of the last two runnings of the race, the post-time favourite has failed to complete the course. Meanwhile, there have been two winners priced up at 20/1 or bigger since 2022.
Prior experience around Cheltenham could be a key trend worth following. All but three of the winners of the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase since 2013 have had at least one run at the track.
Meanwhile, half of the last 12 winners have previous winning experience at Cheltenham.
Shakem Up’Arry became the eleventh straight winner of the race to be rated at 140+ when he won off 143 in 2024.
However, horses rated between 143 and 145 hold the best record in recent memory, with each of the last three being rated between those marks. The highest rated winner since 2013 was Simply The Betts off 149 in 2020 for trainer Harry Whittington.
Having runs over fences to your name is essential when assessing the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase field. All but two of the winners since 2013 have had at least five starts over the bigger obstacles.
Meanwhile, nine of the last 12 winners have at least two chase wins to their name. Staying the distance is also vitally important, with all winners since 2013 having previous experience over two miles and four.
