Fillies and Mares Stakes Trends

The third race of the day is the Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (Group 1). The race has been called a variety of names over the years before its current branding was introduced in 2011. This coincided with the races return to Ascot in 2011.

A significant trend is the lack of five-year-olds to have won the race. Since 1979 there has only been one and that was Crystal Capella back in 2010. That will not change this year without a single five-year-old heading to post.

The last nine years has seen a different trainer win the race on each occasion. The usual suspects of John Gosden and Aiden O’Brien have won the last two, but it is Michael Stoute with the best record in the race. He has won it seven times, including three times out of four in the 1990’s. He also won it in 2008 and 2010. Stoute does not have a runner this year and the race is dominated by Gosden and O’Brien runners.

Again, the race has been shared between seven different jockeys over the last seven years. Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori both have decent records in the race. Moore has won in four times since 2004 with Dettori obliging four times since 1992.

The average price of the winner over last ten years is 6/1 and 60% of those winners have been three-year-olds. It is also important to note that active and recently successful horses are important.

All of the last ten winners had run three times or more over the course of the season and eight out of the ten had finished first or second in their last run.

The race looks a good opportunity for LAH TI DAR this year. She is a three-year-old, trained and ridden by Gosden and Dettori, both of whom have won it before. She has also run three of more times this year, finished first or second in her last run and looks the class angle in the race. A price of 11/8 may seem slim, but we see no reason why she cannot oblige to give Dettori his fifth win in the race and complete an early double for jockey and trainer.