Grand National Stats & Trends 2025

Date: Saturday 5th April Time: 4:00 PM

The world’s most famous race is set for this weekend, as the 2025 Grand National will be held at Aintree. The iconic race features fences such as The Chair, Becher’s Brook, and the Canal Turn, which have become famous in their own right.

This year’s Grand National will feature 34 runners. The field will run over four miles and jump 30 fences over the course of two laps.

Stats and trends can typically point bettors in the right direction when making bets on the legendary handicap, and you can find the key factors to consider here.

The age of a horse can impact their chances of winning the National, with the stats indicating that nine of the last eleven winners have been aged between seven and nine.

Pineau De Re was the third straight eleven-year-old to win the race in 2014, but since then, it has been dominated by slightly younger runners.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: Royale Pagaille, Hewick, Minella Indo, Appreciate It, Conflated, Bravemansgame, Chantry House, Threeunderthrufive, Idas Boy, Coko Beach, Vanillier, Celebre d’Allen, Twig,

The Grand National has become a race for classier horses in recent memory, and that was reflected last season when I Am Maximus stormed to success for Willie Mullins.

However, the stats indicate that runners rated between 146 and 150 have the best strike rate. Six of the last eight winners of the race have been rated between these yardsticks.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: I Am Maximus, Royale Pagaille, Nick Rockett, Grangeclare West, Hewick, Minella Indo, Appreciate It, Minella Cocooner, Conflated, Stumptown, Hitman, Beauport, Bravemansgame, Chantry House, Threeunderthrufive, Perceval Legallois, Kandoo Kid, Iroko, Intense Raffles, Senior Chief, Idas Boy, Duffle Coat

The trends indicate that each of the last eleven National winners have made at least three starts but no more than six throughout the season.

That could be a worrying trend for leading hope I Am Maximus and Henry De Bromhead’s Minella Indo, who have only lined up twice this season.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: I Am Maximus, Minella Indo, Conflated, Threeunderthrufive, Kandoo Kid, Idas Boy, Stay Away Fay, Celebre d’Allen

Horses with proven experience over fences excel in the National. Ten of the last eleven winners of the Aintree showpiece have made at least nine previous career starts over the larger obstacles.

That is a major concern for those supporting one of the big favourites for the race- Iroko.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: Nick Rockett, Grangeclare West, Iroko, Senior Chief, Stay Away Fay, Hyland, Three Card Brag

I Am Maximus will be aiming to become the first horse since Red Rum in the 1970s to carry top weight to success in the National.

The stats indicate that eight of the last ten winners have carried between 10-3 and 11-0. That could be a damning trend for the top 12 runners in the handicap this year.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: I Am Maximus, Royale Pagaille, Nick Rockett, Grangeclare West, Hewick, Minella Indo, Appreciate It, Minella Cocooner, Conflated, Stumptown, Hitman, Beauport

The Grand National is one of the few races where previous experience is actually a negative. Only two of the last 40 winners have won the National after being placed in the race previously. The most notable of those was back-to-back winner Tiger Roll in 2019.

Meanwhile, 14 of the last 16 winners of the race have been making their first start in the National.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: I Am Maximus, Minella Indo, Coko Beach, Meetingofthewaters, Vanillier

One of the key trends in recent editions of the Grand National has been the success achieved by second-season chasers.

That is highlighted by the fact that seven of the last nine winners of the race have claimed victory in their second campaign over the larger obstacles. I Am Maximus continued this trend in 2024.

Tiger Roll was the only winner of the race in his third season (or later) over fences in 2019.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: I Am Maximus, Royale Pagaille, Hewick, Minella Indo, Appreciate It, Conflated, Stumptown, Hitman, Bravemansgame, Chantry House, Threeunderthrufive, Intense Raffles, Idas Boy, Fil Dor, Coko Beach, Monbeg Genuis, Vanillier, Celebre d’Allen, Twig

Jumping is the name of the game when it comes to all races on the National Hunt calendar, but that is especially the case with the Grand National.

Therefore, it is no surprise that horses that have previously fallen have a poorer record in the race. Six of the last ten winners of the Aintree showpiece have never taken a tumble in their career.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: Royale Pagaille, Hewick, Minella Indo, Conflated, Hitman, Beauport, Chantry House, Perceval Legallois, Iroko, Idas Boy, Vanillier, Horantzau d’Airy

To win the Grand National, you must be able to stay over a marathon trip. The trends reflect this, as 14 of the last 19 winners have previous winning experience over at least three miles and one furlong.

Horses with unproven stamina over the trip include market principles such as Iroko and Three Card Brag.

Horses That Don’t Fit This Trend: Grangeclare West, Appreciate It, Conflated, Hitman, Bravemansgame, Threeunderthrufive, Iroko, Fil Dor, Horantzau d’Airy, Three Card Brag, Duffle Coat

After churning through the trends, the results throw up a big selection at an each-way price. Broadway Boy is the runner for the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard, and Tom Bellamy is booked to take the ride.

The seven-year-old has won three from ten career starts over fences, and has run creditably behind reappearing rivals in the race this season, including when a close second in the Coral Gold Cup in November.

He will need to put a disappointing run in the Ultima Handicap Chase behind him, but he does have previous experience at Aintree after running in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase last season.

Has run below his best form from his first season over fences, but that could see him incredibly well-handicapped based on the stats if returning to his best level at Aintree on Saturday.

Other runners worth noting based on trends include Hyland, Intense Raffles, Fil Dor, and Kandoo Kid.