Carlisle Sunday Preview - 31/10/21

Nicky Richards holds an impressive 29% strike rate at Carlisle across the last 3 seasons and also boasts a 29% win rate over this C&D.

His entrant, Famous Bridge, cost 29,000 Euros as a foal however saw his price shoot up to 84,000 Euros as a 3 year old.

The son of Fame and Glory showed real potential when finishing 3rd in his point-to-point race at Punchestown for Damian Murphy in March and he now takes on hurdles for the first time here.

He's expected to relish the switch to Carlisle, at which progeny of Fame and Glory boast a 27% strike rate, and Brian Hughes is an eye-catching booking in the saddle given he has a 42% strike rate (5 - 12) when teaming up with Richards over hurdles at the course.

Phil De Pail has shown clear signs of potential in three bumper starts last season, all around the 2 mile trip, keeping on well in his races.

A £20,000 2yo purchase, he now looks set to relish the step up to 2m 4f and the new trip should bring out plenty improvement.

Trainer Oliver Greenall is known to outperform his expected wins in novice hurdles and with his horses returning from 150+ day breaks, so we can be fairly confident that he will have Phil De Pail nicely prepped ahead of his hurdles debut.

Paddy Brennan, who boasts a 17% strike rate when teaming up with Greenall, is a strong booking in the saddle, being one of just two Brennan rides on the day.

This looks a great novice handicap with plenty of chancers however the vote of confidence goes to the in-form Donald McCain yard, 16-50 (32% S/R) across the last 28 days.

Dreams Of Home is unbeaten to date and remains unexposed after just 4 career starts; he won his point to point last October before winning on all 3 hurdles starts on varying heavy to good to soft grounds, including a win here at Carlisle.

The latter of those wins was a 9 length win over the 2 mile hurdle trip at Newcastle and for that he's been raised a mere 4lbs; he now races off an opening handicap mark of 134, which he may prove to be much better than.

He is upped in trip to 2m 4f, which has great potential to bring out further improvement given the manner he has readily kept on in past races and the fact he's unexposed at the trip, and the race also marks his chase debut.

If he proves to be just as effective over the larger obstacles, and if raring to go on the back of a 225 day break, he'll be tough to beat.

Mark Walford doesn't send many to Carlisle, however boasts a 2 from 6 record at the track in hurdles, also holding a 50% place rate.

Kings Creek was a winner off a mark of 108 at this class 4 level last December, stretching clear by a 5.5 length margin in a soft grounded affair at Catterick.

The son of Elusive Quality was unable to replicate his success off a mark of 117 in his 3 races that followed at Musselburgh however, although connections were confident enough to try him at listed level in the second of those runs, finishing a fair 5th of 8.

Two poor runs on the flat followed in the spring, before disappointing runs on good ground the last twice have now caused his rating to drop to a more than attainable mark of 104.

He's been off the track now for 119 days to rejuvenate and now finally makes a return to better suited soft ground.

He's still only 4 years old and could easily bounce back here to a level well above his current mark; appears overpriced.

This looks a cracking race however Kim Bailey's Espoir De Romay looks to hold all the aces ahead of the Listed Colin Parker Memorial Chase.

Its still very much up for debate whether Espoir De Romay would have won the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree, falling at the second last, after a strong ride from front, whilst still having lengths in hand on his rivals.

He's still very much an improving type with plenty of potential to develop into a high class chaser in the top division this season.

Kim Bailey and David Bass are 5 wins from 5 in chase contests at Carlisle, this contest appears the perfect platform to kick start Espoir De Romay's season.

Tommy's Oscar was a highly progressive hurdler last season, firing off a straight hat-trick in his first 3 runs over obstacles.

He's continued to uphold his consistent levels of form by winning again off a mark of 132 at Kelso before making the impressive step up to Grade 2 level when finishing 3rd in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

The son of Oscar was well fancied to win first time back last time out at Wetherby on the back of a 6 month break, however had to settle for a keeping on 2nd after jumping right on the final circuit.

The switch back to a right handed track paired with the first time step up to 2m 4f looks sure to bring out plenty progression for the runner and a big run appears likely having already gained a promising re-appearance run under his belt this season; he has the fitness edge over this field.

Not a strong bet by any means however a chance is taken here on Sutton Manor for the in-form Lucinda Russell team.

Formerly of Gordon Elliott, Sutton Manor was a once winner off a mark of 138, however is now winless in 6 runs for his new trainer who is yet to get the best out of the now 10 year old gelding, seeing his mark now drop to a careers lowest of 108.

He returned from a 234 day break last time out at Hexham to contest over hurdles, finishing a fair 4th, without leaving any real sort of mark on his rivals in that 0-125 contest; he is now entitled to have come on for that comeback run and should strip fitter ahead of todays run.

Interestingly, connections now step him back up into a 0-135 and switch him back to the chasing sphere; for the raise in class, he now carries a mere 10 stone flat on his back, the lowest weighted in this field by a decent 9lb margin.

He will be sure to appreciate the soft underfoot conditions and looks sure to capitalise on his fast reducing mark at some point in the near future; today looks a well crafted opportunity to do so given how well weighted he is for this contest.