Royal Ascot Day Five Preview 2024

Kicking off the fifth and final day of Royal Ascot 2024 is the Listed Chesham Stakes ran over seven furlongs exclusively for two year old horses. The Ballydoyle team of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore have scored four times in the last ten editions of this race and will be hoping they can add another one to their immense trophy cabinet with BEDTIME STORY.

Having enjoyed a brilliant Royal Ascot thus far, including Kyprios winning the Ascot Gold Cup and O’Brien landing a 400th Group 1 success, BEDTIME STORY looks good to bring the curtain down in style for the Irish based team. Impeccably bred being by Frankel and Mecca’s Angel, BEDTIME STORY cruised home in a hot Leopardstown maiden seeing off the odds-on Giselle – which was the chosen mount of Ryan Moore. That success was comfortable for all to see, leading home a Frankel bred 1 – 2 in the race. The stiffer track will suit as well, with Chris Armstrong stating, “Wayne said when she steps up in trip again, she will be a fine filly for the backend”. Whilst the Chesham may just be a stepping stone, BEDTIME STORY has all the hallmarks of a future Group scorer.

An interesting statistic to analyse is that since 1999, only three of the winners since had scored over seven furlongs. Two of these were O’Brien trained, (September and Point Lonsdale) showing that the Ballydoyle team get it right when sending a seven furlong horse here. On this evidence, BEDTIME STORY looks a good bet to land O’Brien his seventh Chesham Stakes.

The first Group contest of Day five at Royal Ascot 2024 is the Hardwicke Stakes, ran over 1m4f. Last year’s renewal of this race was won by Pyledriver, who hampered his rivals in the final furlongs showing the rough and tumble nature of this race. MIDDLE EARTH is the horse of interest here for the John and Thady Gosden team.

Although the Clarehaven team haven’t enjoyed the best of what Royal Ascot has to offer so far this week, MIDDLE EARTH scored impressively in the Aston Park Stakes on reappearance. Landing a Group 3 on seasonal debut is no mean feat. Beating the reopposing Royal runner Desert Hero by eight lengths who was coming off the back of second place in a Group 3 at Sandown makes this even more impressive. King of Conquest, who was just touched off in second, has gone on to win a Listed contest at Goodwood easily proving that MIDDLE EARTH ran a very good race. A winner over 1m6f, the trip will be no problem and he will have come on bundles for that run.

The booking of Oisin Murphy may well give punters more confidence in the Clarehaven outfit, as the highly scrutinised Kieran Shoemark has not yet delivered the goods so far this week.

In the last ten years, six of the winners of the Hardwicke scored last time out whilst seven of the victors were aged four. Both of these statistics apply to MIDDLE EARTH who will be looking to give the Gosden team something to cheer about this Royal Ascot.

The feature race of Day 5 is the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, a Group 1 contest ran over six furlongs. The Group 1 contest was one of the headline shocks last year – with Khaadem winning at massive odds of 80/1. This horse was drawn in stall two, as is SHARTASH who is the selection for this race.

By Invincible Spirit for Wathnan Racing, who have been in fine form so far this week, Archie Watson will be hoping this horse maintains his unbeaten record for the yard. Wathnan clearly have an eye for sprinters, scoring with Leovanni and Shareholder earlier in the week whilst James Doyle will be hoping for a third win of this nature. Stepping down in trip again after landing the Pertemps Spring Trophy at Haydock, just hanging on at the end, this trip looks like it could bring about more improvement.

Speaking ahead of Royal Ascot, Archie Watson was quoted as saying “he is going to be a very versatile horse between six and seven furlongs, but I think the stiff six furlongs at Ascot will really suit him. At home he was showing us that he was sharpening up and back to being a sprinter, but I wanted to start him off over seven furlongs to ease him into it”. A yard renowned for the performance of its older sprinters, SHARTASH could well handle this step up in grade and take it in his stride.

With trainer Archie Watson confident on the horse’s chances, James Doyle in fine form and Wathnan Racing enjoying a productive week there is no reason why SHARTASH cannot go a few steps further and land this Group 1 prize which is known to spring a few shocks in recent years.

The first Group 3 of the day, the Jersey Stakes is ran over seven furlongs exclusively for three year old horses. A horse that favours beaten Guineas horses, five of the last ten winners had ran in an iteration of that race.

HAATEM ran in both races this year finishing a creditable third in the English Guineas behind Notable Speech and Rosallion, whilst just going down a head again to the latter in the Irish Version of this race. Rosallion has since heavily franked this form, landing the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes in impressive style earlier in the week. Crossing paths with the dangerous River Tiber again, who ran in behind the pair on seasonal reappearance in the Irish Guineas, HAATEM will be looking to confirm this form. Giving this serious rival 3lbs may be dangerous – however HAATEMs form has been seriously franked.

James Doyle and Richard Hannon are enjoying a fine week, and the confidence should be flowing through Doyle especially looking to add another win to his tally. An RPR of 125 puts HAATEM and River Tiber on levels, whilst an OR rates HAATEM 2lbs higher. Wathnan Racing manager Richard Brown believes that HAATEM is a true Group 1 horse. Brown stated “This is a tough horse; he’s come up against the two best three-year-old milers around and has got closer in Ireland than he did in Newmarket. We feel a stiff seven at Ascot could be right up his alley”.

With the Jersey Stakes clearly being the target since his purchase, the form of James Doyle and Richard Hannon this week and the confidence of Brown that HAATEM is one of the best milers in the country – a massive performance can be expected from a hugely talented performer.

The first handicap of the day is the Wokingham Stakes, ran over six furlongs with some old favourites sure to make an appearance here. Boasting past winners such as Rohaan, Saint Lawrence and Cape Byron – the Wokingham favours a real gutsy handicapping sort.

If retaining the same ability that was seen as a three year old, HARRY THREE fits the profile of a Wokingham winner perfectly. A winner of two big handicap pots at Newmarket and York in 2022, HARRY THREE is no stranger to landing a race of this nature over the distance. His best performances were coming sixth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock and victory in the Prix Kistena Listed contest at Deauville. Reappearing in a Listed race at Salisbury and not being disgraced after 630 days off is a positive whilst the booking of Ryan Moore is certainly an eye catcher.

With an OR of 104, HARRY THREE may be caught out by the handicapper carrying 9st 9lbs however a lot of the key trends fall in this son of Adaay’s favour. His draw of 23 has seen three winners from the last ten in the range of 23 and 31, whilst five of the past ten winners of this race had won or placed in a field of 16 or higher. HARRY THREE has won in a field of nineteen, showing he isn’t afraid to get stuck in and see out his task to the line.

The key question surrounding HARRY THREE is whether he retains the same ability as was seen as a three year old. If he has, he is only 7lbs higher than his winning mark at York and the booking of Ryan Moore is highly significant. As with all handicaps of this nature, caution is advised due to the cavalry charge nature of the race. This leaves HARRY THREE at a brilliant each way price.

The penultimate race of the week, the Golden Gates Stakes Handicap is ran over 1m2f for three year old horses. With most of these horses stepping out of novice company for the first time, the Golden Gates is sure to be a competitive and wide open contest.

APPROVAL is the horse of choice here, an impressive winner of a Windsor maiden last time out over the same distance. APPROVAL was highly eye-catching, making all of the running beating a well fancied Gosden horse Lord of Love by just over four lengths in the process. This race was essentially put to bed around two furlongs from home, with APPROVAL continuing to run on and hit the line strong. Earning an OR of 90 for that performance, APPROVAL looks to be on a very handy mark given the trip looks to be absolutely no issue. Burdett Road won this race last year off exactly the same mark showing that it is certainly doable. Two of the four past winners of this race were weighted below 9st which certainly backs this theory up.

Whilst William Haggas is yet to land a winner so far this Royal Ascot, his horses have ran somewhat creditably with Maljoom and Doom both placing within the top three. The retention of Tom Marquand who was brave enough to go from the front and make all at Windsor is a sign that these tactics will be repeated. APPROVAL clearly has promise and is a very good bet at an each way price.

Rounding off a brilliant five days of action at Royal Ascot is the Queen Alexandra Stakes, a conditions race ran over 2m5f. A conditions race is not weighted based off pure ability like a traditional handicap contest. In this contest, one of the conditions is based on the sex of the runners with female horses being weighted lighter than the male horses. Another condition is referred to as weight for age – younger horses receiving weight from those that are more mature. A final possible condition is based on the quality of races won in the past.

A race dominated by the Irish in recent years with six of the last ten renewals going across the sea, it is another Irish raider who looks appealing here. POSTILEO was a four time winner for Roger Varian and since moving to Ireland has looked encouraging. Purchased for 78,000 Gns by Mullins, POSTILEO has finished within nine lengths of Ascot Gold Cup winner Kyprios on his last start. On his best form POSTILEO was good enough to be placed in Group company, finishing third behind this year’s Wolferton Stakes winner Israr, whilst he also landed a Heritage Handicap victory at Hamilton last summer. An OR of 105 seems fair based on these pieces of form.

With the inform James Doyle booked, Mullins clearly expects a big run from this horse. A seriously shrewd operator in races of this nature, Mullins will be sure to have POSTILEO fit and ready to go. On this basis, he holds every chance at an each way price of landing the Queen Alexandra Stakes, ending Royal Ascot 2024 on a high for the Irish.