Champion Chase Stats & Trends 2025

Date: Wednesday 12th March

Time: 4:00pm

The feature on Day Two of the Cheltenham Festival is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. It is a Grade One contest run over a distance of a mile and seven furlongs on the Old Course.

The race is the leading minimum-distance chase of the season, and has produced some iconic winners throughout history. Among those include superstars such as Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, and Altior.

However, it has come an unpredictable race to bet on in recent years. Therefore, it is important to assess the Champion Chase stats and trends before placing a wager.

A horse’s age is a big indicator when narrowing down potential Champion Chase winners, as ten of the last 12 winners have been aged between seven and nine.

The oldest winner of the race since 2017 was Special Tiara aged ten for the Henry De Bromhead stable. Each of the last two winners have been aged nine, with Captain Guinness securing victory in a shock outcome last year.

The trend could be detrimental for Energumene, who is aiming to become the first eleven-year-old winner of the race since Moscow Flyer in 2005.

The Champion Chase has become a problem race for favourite backers in recent years, with shock winners coming out on top in the race. Last year, Captain Guinness won at odds of 17/2, while 2/9 favourite El Fabiolo was pulled up after the fifth fence.

Energumene was a winning favourite of the race in 2023, becoming the first market leader since Altior in 2019 to win the Champion Chase. Overall, five of the last 12 favourites have won the race. But, the lack of favourite winners could be a concern for those backing Jonbon at such a short price.

Despite being the standout two-mile chase on the schedule, recent form doesn’t carry a lot of weight when assessing Champion Chase winners. Only half of the last 12 winners of the Festival Race were last time out winners.

However, nine of the winners since 2013 had run within 53 days of the Grade One. A key trial race is the Clarence House Chase, with seven of the last 12 winners having run in the Ascot race. That is a positive sign for Jonbon, who could become the fifth winner from eight to win both races in the same season.

Cheltenham experience is vital trend to consider when assessing the Champion Chase contenders. Eleven of the winners since 2013 had made at least two starts at Cheltenham, while seven of victors over the same period had previously won at the home of jumps racing.

Despite many arguing that Cheltenham doesn’t suit Jonbon, he is a two-time winner at the track. This trend also favours the chances of Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo, and last year’s winner, Captain Guinness.

The Champion Chase is the pinnacle race over the trip, meaning it is little surprise that it has been won by the highest quality horses throughout recent history.

That is reflected by the fact that eleven of the last 12 winners had won at least one Grade 1 before winning the Champion Chase. Meanwhile, all victors in the Festival race had won at least a Grade 2 before lining up at Cheltenham.