The penultimate race on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival in 2025 will be the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle. The Premier Handicap will see the field compete over an extended two miles, and only horses aged four are able to compete on the Old Course.
There have been some trappy renewals of the Fred Winter since its inception in 2013, and you can find the stats and trends to make more informed selections for the race this year.
The Fred Winter has been no stranger to big-priced winners since its inception in 2013. That is reflected by the trend of there only being one winning favourite in the last 12 renewals. Meanwhile, only four of the victors since 2013 have been found in the top three in the betting.
Lark In The Mornin was a 9/1 shot when winning the race in 2024, becoming the shortest-priced winner of the race since 2020. Since 2020, Jeff Kidder won at odds of 80/1 in 2021, and Jazzy Matty was an 18/1 winner in 2023.
As a handicap, there is an interesting trend in terms of the most likely preferred weight collocation for the Fred Winter. Nine of the last 12 winners have carried between 10st 6lb and 11st 5lb.
Brazil produced one of the best weight-carrying performances in 2022 when winning off 11-9. However, two of the last four winners of the race have carried less than 11st.
Heading to Cheltenham in winning form isn’t an essential for Fred Winter contenders. Only four of the last 12 winners have won on their previous start before travelling to the Festival. However, the timing of a recent run could be key, with nine of the last 12 winners having lined up within the last 53 days.
An interesting race of note is the Rated Novice Hurdle at Naas, four runners of the race have competed in that contest, with three winners having followed up at Cheltenham.
Experience over jumps is essential for runners in the Fred Winter. All 12 winners of the race since 2013 have made at least three starts over hurdles before lining up at the Festival. Meanwhile, ten of the victors of the Fred Winter had previous winning experience over obstacles.
That could bode well for Stencil from the Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm yard.
The ratings also make for key reading before making a Fred Winter selection. Nine of the winners of the race since 2013 have been rated between 122 and 134.
The only exceptions to this rule were Brazil in 2022 off 137, Aramax off 138 in 2020, and Band of Outlaws in 2019 off 139.
Irish trainers have won the race in every renewal since 2018, and Joseph O’Brien has sent out two winners. He could have another leading chance in the form of Galileo Dame in 2025.
The four-year-old filly made a pleasing debut over hurdles at Leopardstown in December, finishing two lengths behind Wendrock, but warmed to the task throughout. She had a moderate rating of 96 on the flat, and was a proven runner over the stamina-sapping distances on testing ground at the Curragh and Naas.
Still has something to prove over hurdles, but she could shorten significantly with a strong effort in the G1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
