Arkle Chase Stats & Trends 2025

The first novice chase of the Cheltenham Festival in 2025 is the Arkle Challenge Trophy. It offers a glimpse at potential runners for future editions of the Champion Chase, but is a Grade One contest in its own right.

The Arkle is run over two miles on the Old Course, and is the second race on the opening day of the Festival.

It has been a stepping-stone for some legendary horses in recent history, including Shishkin, Altior, and El Fabiolo. The stats and trends to consider when assessing the contenders in 2025 can be found here.

As a premier novice chase at the Festival, it is unsurprising that winning experience over fences is a must when considering potential Arkle contenders. In fact, eleven of the 12 winners since 2013 have won on their final start before travelling to Cheltenham.

The Irish Arkle, run at the Dublin Racing Festival, has been particularly important, with four of the winners since 2013 contesting the Grade One at Leopardstown.

Despite the Irish having a very strong record in the Arkle, previous Cheltenham experience is essential when considering the chances of runners in the race. Ten of the last 12 winners have had at least one previous run at the home of jumps racing.

But, it is important to note that winning experience isn’t essential, with just half of the ten winners having recorded a win at Cheltenham. Gaelic Warrior was second in a G1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and a G3 Boodles before winning the Arkle in 2024.

Official ratings could hold the key to finding the potential winner of the Arkle in 2025. The stats show that each of the last 20 winners have achieved a TS rating of 123+ in their last three starts, while an RPR rating of 140+ has been achieved in the last start by 73% of the winners.

Nine of the victors since 2013 have been rated at 157 or higher, with the lowest rated winner being Western Warhorse in 2014 off 135.

A potential trend that many may consider overlooking in 2025 is the fact that eleven of the 12 winners have been aged six or seven.

The oldest winner since 2013 was Edwardstone as an eight-year-old in 2022. Worryingly for fans of Majborough and Sir Gino, only two horses have won the Arkle aged five since 2002 (Well Chief- 2004 & Voy Por Ustedes- 2006).

While the Arkle is run over the bigger obstacles, the trends indicate that hurdles form should be considered when finding the ideal winner. All 12 winners since 2013 have made at least four starts over the smaller obstacles, with ten winners over that period recording at least two wins.

All but one of the Arkle winners since 2013 have had two runs over fences, with all having winning experience over the bigger obstacles.

The negative trends of five-year-olds in the Arkle mean that both Sir Gino and Majborough could be opposable at the top of the market.

Firefox has always been held in high regarded by Gordon Elliott, and the seven-year-old was an excellent competitor over hurdles last season, beating Ballyburn over two miles in December 2023, before placing in Grade One company on three occasions, including in the G1 Champion Hurdle, before switching to fences.

After making a winning chase debut over two miles and four, he came up short when third in the G1 Drinmore. There is still potential over two miles, and if getting into a rhythm on the front end, he could be very hard to drag back at Cheltenham.