A star-studded Champion Hurdle looks set for the Cheltenham Festival in 2025, with the returning Constitution Hill widely expected to regain the title that he wasn’t fit enough to defend in 2024.
The Grade One is the fifth race on the opening day of the Festival, with horses aged four and older competing over a speedy two-mile trip on the Old Course. But, could the stats and trends point toward a potential value play at the prices available?
It is hard to ignore the clear trend of winning favourites in the Champion Hurdle. Each of the last five winners of the race have been the market leader, while nine winners since 2013 have been sent off as the top selection based on prices.
The biggest priced selection to win the Champion Hurdle since 2013 was Espoir D’Allen for Gavin Cromwell at 16/1 in 2019. Odds-on favourites have won each of the last three renewals, including State Man at 2/5 in 2024.
A previous run around Cheltenham is a massive benefit to a Champion Hurdle contender, with eleven of the last 12 winners having previous racecourse experience at the home of jumps racing.
Meanwhile, eight of the victors since 2013 have registered at least one previous win at Cheltenham before winning at the Festival. That could be a worrying trend for a couple of the ante-post market leaders, including Anzadam and Brighterdaysahead.
The route to the Champion Hurdle has been clear to see in recent seasons, and eleven of the last 12 champions have won on their latest start before winning at Cheltenham. Interestingly, five of the last 12 winners have come from the Irish Champion Hurdle, with this trend seeing seven winners of the feature on day one of the Festival since 2005.
The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton has also been a productive prep race, with two of the last five winners winning on Boxing Day before at the Festival. The latest of those was Constitution Hill in 2023.
As the standout race on the schedule for two-mile hurdlers, it is no surprise that the trends show that eleven of the last 12 winners have recorded at least one previous victory in Grade One company.
That could be a potentially damning trend for a number of contenders, including Anzadam and Brentford Hope.
The ratings will point to the most obvious contender in the Champion Hurdle. Ten of the last 12 winners have been rated 161 or higher, with State Man continuing this trend when winning off a rating of 169 in 2024.
The lowest-rated winner of the Champion Hurdle since 2013 was Buveur D’Air for Nicky Henderson off 157 in 2017.
Even at this stage, the Champion Hurdle looks a straight shootout between the two at the top of the betting. But, the trends could indicate that it may be worth chancing Lossiemouth to reverse the Christmas Hurdle form on Constitution Hill.
The Kempton track didn’t suit the six-year-old mare, but she still finished within two lengths of the favourite despite everything going wrong. The Willie Mullins runner comes alive at Cheltenham, posting her best rating when storming to success in the G1 Mares’ Hurdle last year.
Despite having something to find, Lossiemouth is a different beast around Cheltenham, and that could see her provide value in the market, despite it remaining an uphill challenge.
