National Hunt Chase Stats & Trends 2025

A true test of a horse’s stamina rounds off the card on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, as the National Hunt Chase is run over three miles and six furlongs.

Horses aged five and older are able to run in the novice chase, which is a Grade Two contest on the Old Course. It has been a race won by notable Irish raiders throughout recent history, with Tiger Roll, Galvin, and Stattler being among the winners since 2017.

The stats and trends to follow when assessing the National Hunt Chase contenders in 2025 can be found here.

The National Hunt Chase is one of the few races at the Festival in which favourites have a poor strike-rate. Only two of the last 12 renewals have been won by the market leaders, which the latest favourite to go in coming in 2023, as Patrick Mullins rode Gaillard Du Mesnil to success.

However, three of the last four winners have been the second favourite in the market. The biggest priced winner since 2013 was remarkably dual-Grand National winner Tiger Roll in 2017 at 16/1.

The ratings could be worth checking when examining the National Hunt contenders, as all but one of the last 12 winners of the race have been rated 142 or higher.

That includes Corbetts Cross in 2024, who was the fourth straight winner of the race to be rated 150+. The lowest-rated winner of the National Hunt Chase was Midnight Prayer off 139 in 2014.

The National Hunt Chase is a race that has been dominated by seven-year-old’s in recent memory.

Each of the last four winners have been aged seven, while this trend also stretches back to 2015 with eight of the eleven winners being of that age. That could be a potentially damning trend for Gavin Cromwell’s eight-year-old market leader, Now Is The Hour.

Previous Cheltenham form is a must for a National Hunt Chase contender, with nine of the winners since 2013 having run around the home of jumps on at least one previous occasion.

However, winning experience at the track isn’t essential, with just two winners in the last 12 having won at Cheltenham. Form during the season is essential to consider too, with ten of the last 12 winners having won over fences during the season.

The National Hunt Chase is run over the marathon trip at Cheltenham, meaning it is little surprise that runners with previous experience over the distance have fared well.

All but three of the winners since 2013 have previous run over Festival race trip. Meanwhile, ten of the last 12 victors had recorded at least one win over at least three miles before competing in the National Hunt Chase.

Despite being an eight-year-old, Transmission looks mapped out for a run in the National Hunt Chase. The Neil Mulholland runner was an eye-catcher over hurdles in the G2 Cleeve Hurdle on Trial’s Day, but has chasing experience already under his belt and likely lined up over the smaller obstacles to protect his mark.

The eight-year-old was an excellent second over an extended three miles and one behind Haiti Couleurs in mid-December, and has winning experience at the course after beating Java Point by a length at the November meet.

The staying distance looks tailor-made for the Mulholland runner, who is an incredibly safe jumper, and further improvement could be unlocked when making the step up in trip.